Newcastle1 - 2Sunderland
NewcastleWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 57' — and still finish +$6152?
Match Overview
Newcastle hosted Sunderland in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: A. Gordon (10'), C. Talbi (57'), M. Thiaw (75'), B. Brobbey (90'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 2 waves, achieving 73% precision with a net result of +$6152.38 (ROI: +76.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.9.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Newcastle leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sunderland -1.5 and Sunderland -1. Average expected value was 45.7%, with a combined stake of $5296. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 51.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$6854.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 57' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Newcastle leading 1-0 at 57'. C. Talbi scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sunderland -0.5 and Newcastle and Draw. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $2706. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 18.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-702.03.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 36.4% (51.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 36.4% (51.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 36.4% (50.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1.5: AI saw 87.9% vs market's 51.3% (36.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 51.3% (36.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$2284.00 (ROI: +129.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2186.80 (ROI: +78.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1681.57 (ROI: +48.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Newcastle's favor. Newcastle had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Sunderland's 17 (7 on target). Expected goals: Newcastle 1.27 — Sunderland 2.45. Corners: 9-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$2284.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +76.9% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$2284.00.
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