Newcastle

2 - 1

Manchester United

Newcastle hosted Manchester United in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: A. Gordon (45' pen), Casemiro (45'), W. Osula (90'). Newcastle received a red card (J. Ramsey, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-485.42 (ROI: -56.1%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.56 to 2.67.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (active_trader_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$180.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $665. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-665.42.

- **active_trader_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-665.42 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 45%–55% in Newcastle's deficit. Newcastle had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Manchester United's 14 (5 on target). Expected goals: Newcastle 2.22 — Manchester United 1.28. Corners: 2-4.