Newcastle2 - 3Brentford
NewcastleWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-132 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Newcastle hosted Brentford in the Premier League, finishing 2-3. Goals: S. Botman (24'), V. Janelt (37'), I. Thiago (45' pen), Bruno Guimaraes (79' pen), D. Ouattara (85'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-132.31 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.92 to 2.15.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Newcastle leading 1-0 at 29'. S. Botman scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle -1.25. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $132. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-132.31.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-132.31 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Newcastle's favor. Newcastle had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Brentford's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Newcastle 2.25 — Brentford 1.81. Corners: 9-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 46.5% / 28.2% / 28.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market severely undervalued Brentford across the 1x2 and Asian Handicap lines, offering substantial underdog value.
The Premier League clash between Newcastle and Brentford ended in a surprising 2-3 victory for the away side. The 1x2 market heavily favored Newcastle with an implied win probability of 46.51%, while Brentford was priced as a 28.17% underdog. This outcome represents a clear market inefficiency. In the Asian Handicap market, Newcastle was set at a -0.25 line with a 53.48% probability to cover. However, Brentford's outright win at 3-2 ensured they easily covered their +0.25 handicap, signaling significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for those backing the away side. The Totals market (O/U 2.75) correctly leaned Over with 5 goals scored, indicating proper pricing in that segment. The primary misjudgment was the market's underestimation of Brentford's winning potential.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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