Newcastle1 - 2Bournemouth
NewcastleWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 33', 69', 72', 75' — and still finish +$4497?
Match Overview
Newcastle hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: M. Tavernier (32'), W. Osula (68'), A. Truffert (85'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$4497.20 (ROI: +72.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.87 to 2.18.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth and Bournemouth 0. Average expected value was 15.6%, with a combined stake of $2202. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.9% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 24.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$3142.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bournemouth leading 0-1 at 33'. M. Tavernier scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Newcastle +0.5. Average expected value was 20.4%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 23.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2354.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after W. Osula's equalizer at 68'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 72' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after W. Osula's equalizer at 68'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle +1. Average expected value was 22.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 75' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after W. Osula's equalizer at 68'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle +1. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 23.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 25.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth 0: AI saw 71.9% vs market's 47.6% (24.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 56.3% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle +0.5: AI saw 67.1% vs market's 43.5% (23.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle +0.5: AI saw 66.7% vs market's 43.5% (23.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2366.20 (ROI: +75.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/1L/1V, +$2131.00 (ROI: +69.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Newcastle's favor. Newcastle had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Bournemouth's 12 (3 on target). Expected goals: Newcastle 1.65 — Bournemouth 3.03. Corners: 2-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2366.20.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.9% / 26.7% / 30.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market Missed Away Win Value
The Premier League clash between Newcastle and Bournemouth concluded with a surprising 1:2 away victory for Bournemouth. The 1x2 market displayed significant inefficiency, with the closing line indicating Newcastle as the strong favorite (ML Home Win Prob: 45.87%) while Bournemouth's win probability was only 30.77%. This created a clear Value Signal for the away side. Similarly, in the Handicap market, Newcastle was favored at -0.25 (HDP Home Prob: 52.36%), yet Bournemouth comfortably covered the +0.25 line. The Totals market for Over/Under 3.25 goals, however, proved more accurate, with the market leaning towards the Under (ML Under Prob: 54.05%) which ultimately hit with 3 total goals. The biggest market error was underestimating Bournemouth's chances for an outright win.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.5% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2366.20.
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