Manchester United3 - 2Nottingham Forest
Manchester UnitedWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 10', 35', 55', 60', 71', 76' — and still finish +$199?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 3-2. Goals: L. Shaw (5'), Morato (53'), Morato (54'), M. Cunha (55'), M. Cunha (56'), B. Mbeumo (76'), M. Gibbs-White (78'). OddsFlow deployed 40 trades across 7 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$199.44 (ROI: +5.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 10'. L. Shaw scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -1.5. Average expected value was 37.0%, with a combined stake of $132. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$138.60. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3 and Under 3.5 and Nottingham Forest -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 38.3%, with a combined stake of $977. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 51.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 2 of 10 trades won, netting $-340.35. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Cunha's equalizer at 55'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -0.5 and Draw and Manchester United and Over 3.5 and Over 4.25. Average expected value was 20.9%, with a combined stake of $2018. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 76.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 9 of 23 trades won, netting +$526.94. ### Wave 5 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 60'. M. Cunha scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 18.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.9% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 15.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 71'. Nottingham Forest made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -1. Average expected value was 62.9%, with a combined stake of $135. The sharpest edge was on Nottingham Forest -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 60.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$236.25. ### Wave 7 — Minute 76' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 76'. B. Mbeumo scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 64.3%, with a combined stake of $152. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 40.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-152.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 36.4% (60.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 37.4% (51.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nottingham Forest -1: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 37.4% (50.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 47.2% (40.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 47.6% (40.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$589.60 (ROI: +75.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$84.25 (ROI: +29.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 15 trades, 5W/10L, $-218.21 (ROI: -17.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 16 trades, 5W/11L, $-246.21 (ROI: -19.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Manchester United's deficit. Manchester United had 27 shots (7 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 3.77 — Nottingham Forest 1.75. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +5.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$589.60.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 61.4% / 23.1% / 19.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under market undervalued the potential for a high-scoring game.
Manchester United secured a 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest in a Premier League clash. The 1X2 market accurately predicted a home win, with Manchester United having an implied probability of 61.35%. In the Asian Handicap market, despite Manchester United closing as -1 favorites, their narrow 3-2 win meant they did not cover the spread. Nottingham Forest successfully covered the +1 handicap, an outcome the market had a slight lean towards with a 53.76% probability. The most notable market signal emerged from the Goals Over/Under market. The closing line was 3 goals, yet the match produced a high-scoring 5 goals. While the market correctly leaned towards the 'Over' with a 53.19% probability, the significant number of goals scored suggests that the true probability of such a high-scoring game was potentially undervalued, thus creating a value signal for 'Over' bettors.
A positive result with +5.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$199.44. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$589.60.
See AI signals as they happen
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