Manchester United3 - 2Liverpool
Manchester UnitedWhy did AI enter 2 times at 48', 56' — and still finish +$2464?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Liverpool in the Premier League, finishing 3-2. Goals: M. Cunha (6'), B. Sesko (14'), D. Szoboszlai (47'), C. Gakpo (56'), K. Mainoo (77'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 2 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$2463.51 (ROI: +20.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 48' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 48'. D. Szoboszlai scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Liverpool -1 and Manchester United. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $6919. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 7 of 10 trades won, netting +$2557.63. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 56'. C. Gakpo scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Liverpool 0 and Under 5.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.8%, with a combined stake of $5286. The sharpest edge was on Under 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 90.5% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 28.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-94.11.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -1: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 53.3% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -1: AI saw 91.2% vs market's 53.3% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -1: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 53.3% (37.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -1: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 53.3% (37.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Over/Under Under 5.5: AI saw 90.5% vs market's 61.9% (28.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$778.65 (ROI: +19.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$755.94 (ROI: +19.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$753.93 (ROI: +18.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$175.00 (ROI: +87.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 38%–61% in Manchester United's deficit. Manchester United had 17 shots (6 on target) versus Liverpool's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 2.08 — Liverpool 0.06. Corners: 3-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$778.65.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.1% / 26.0% / 33.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Clear Over Bet Value
Manchester United defeated Liverpool 3-2 in a high-scoring Premier League encounter. The 1x2 market correctly identified Manchester United as the slight favorite (43.1% probability), which proved accurate. However, significant market inefficiencies were evident in the Handicap Asian and Goals Over/Under markets. Despite Manchester United winning and covering the -0.25 spread, the market heavily favored Liverpool +0.25 to cover with a 53.19% probability. The most pronounced error was in the Totals market, where the closing line had a strong lean towards Under 3.25 goals (52.91% probability). With 5 goals scored, the 'Over' bet delivered substantial Closing Line Value (CLV), indicating a missed opportunity for bookmakers.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +20.2% ROI on 19 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$778.65.
See AI signals as they happen
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