Manchester United1 - 2Leeds
Manchester UnitedWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 29' — and still finish +$667?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Leeds in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: N. Okafor (5'), N. Okafor (29'), Casemiro (69'). Manchester United received a red card (L. Martinez, 56'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 2 waves, achieving 29% precision with a net result of +$666.60 (ROI: +15.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Leeds leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester United -0.5 and Manchester United 0. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 22.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Leeds leading 0-1 at 29'. N. Okafor scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United +1 and Draw. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $2384. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.4% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1666.60.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United +1: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 46.5% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United +1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 46.5% (40.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United -0.5: AI saw 60.3% vs market's 37.4% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United -0.5: AI saw 58.8% vs market's 37.4% (21.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United 0: AI saw 59.7% vs market's 48.2% (11.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$575.25 (ROI: +29.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, +$91.35 (ROI: +3.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Manchester United's favor. Manchester United had 20 shots (9 on target) versus Leeds's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 1.4 — Leeds 2.37. Corners: 11-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +15.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$575.25.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 60.6% / 24.0% / 18.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The outright away win for Leeds was severely undervalued in the 1x2 market.
In the Premier League clash between Manchester United and Leeds (1-2), OddsFlow AI detected significant Market Inefficiencies. The 1x2 market heavily favored Manchester United with a 60.61% implied win probability, while Leeds' away win was priced at a mere 18.87%. The actual outcome was a 2-1 victory for Leeds, representing a clear Value Signal against the closing line. In the Asian Handicap market, Manchester United was set at -0.75 with a 54.35% probability to cover. Leeds, however, not only covered the +0.75 handicap but secured an outright win, indicating a severe misjudgment by the market on the underdog's potential. The Totals market (O/U 2.75) was relatively more efficient; with 3 goals scored, the 'Over' bet resulted in a half-win, aligning with the market's slight lean towards the Over (54.35% probability).
A positive result with +15.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$666.60. Top performer: Active Trader at +$575.25.
See AI signals as they happen
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