Manchester United3 - 2Fulham
Manchester United1 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Fulham in the Premier League, finishing 3-2. Goals: Casemiro (19'), Casemiro (20'), M. Cunha (56'), J. Cuenca (65'), R. Jimenez (85' pen), Kevin (90'), B. Sesko (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 2.06 to 1.92; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester United -1. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45%–55% in Manchester United's deficit. Manchester United had 13 shots (6 on target) versus Fulham's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 1.74 — Fulham 1.97. Corners: 3-7.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 21.7% / 17.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the "Over 3 Goals" outcome.
Manchester United secured a 3-2 victory over Fulham. The 1x2 market correctly priced Manchester United as the clear favorite (64.1% implied probability). On the Asian Handicap market, Manchester United at -1 saw a push as they won by a single goal. The most notable market inefficiency was found in the Totals market. Despite 5 total goals scored, the closing line had a strong lean towards Under 3 Goals (53.76% implied probability vs 48.78% for Over). This represents a clear Value Signal for the Over, highlighting a significant mispricing by the bookmakers.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.