Manchester United2 - 1Crystal Palace
Manchester UnitedWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 45', 70', 78' — and still finish +$3985?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Lacroix (4'), B. Fernandes (57' pen), B. Sesko (65'). Crystal Palace received a red card (M. Lacroix, 56'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 4 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$3984.72 (ROI: +131.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace 0. Average expected value was 6.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $2127. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 36.7% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$4784.72. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 70'. B. Sesko scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 78' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 2-1 at 78'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester United -0.25. Average expected value was 3.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 70'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 60.0% vs market's 42.1% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$3984.72 (ROI: +131.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61%–39% in Manchester United's favor. Manchester United had 18 shots (11 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 1.94 — Crystal Palace 0.38. Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +131.7% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.5% / 22.6% / 16.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market overestimated Manchester United to cover the -1 Asian Handicap.
The match between Manchester United and Crystal Palace concluded 2-1. In the 1x2 market, the market correctly identified Manchester United as the favorite with a 64.52% win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. The Asian Handicap market, set at -1 for Manchester United, saw a 52.36% probability for the home side to cover. However, the 2-1 result meant a push on this line, indicating the market slightly overestimated Manchester United's ability to clear the spread. In the Totals (Over/Under) market, with a line of 2.75, the market leaned towards the Over with 54.35% probability. The three goals scored validated this market sentiment, resulting in an efficient prediction. The primary market inefficiency was observed in the handicap market, where the implied probability of Manchester United covering the -1 line did not materialize.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +131.7% ROI on 5 trades.
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