Manchester United2 - 1Brentford
Manchester UnitedWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 38' — and still finish +$2734?
Match Overview
Manchester United hosted Brentford in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: Casemiro (11'), B. Sesko (43'), M. Jensen (87'), M. Jensen (88'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$2733.80 (ROI: +46.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.99; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.88 to 1.99.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Brentford -1. Average expected value was 26.7%, with a combined stake of $4424. The sharpest edge was on Brentford -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 39.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$4233.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 38'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 8.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Brentford -1: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 48.2% (39.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Brentford -1: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 48.2% (39.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Brentford -1: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 48.2% (39.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$913.78 (ROI: +46.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$911.63 (ROI: +46.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$908.40 (ROI: +46.1%)
Match Statistics
Manchester United had 11 shots (6 on target) versus Brentford's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +46.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$913.78.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 50.3% / 26.0% / 26.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Handicap market overestimated Brentford +0.5.
In the Premier League clash between Manchester United and Brentford (2-1), our OddsFlow model detected a notable market inefficiency in the Asian Handicap market. Manchester United secured a 2-1 victory, successfully covering their -0.5 handicap. However, the closing line probabilities for the Handicap market indicated a 51.81% chance for Brentford to cover +0.5. The actual outcome saw Brentford fail to cover, highlighting a significant overestimation by the market on Brentford's ability to keep the margin close. The 1x2 market correctly identified Manchester United as the favorite (50.25% probability), and the game's total goals (3) perfectly matched the Over/Under 3 line, suggesting efficiency in that specific market. The primary value signal emerged from the mispricing of the Asian Handicap.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +46.1% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$913.78.
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