Manchester United

3 - 1

Aston Villa

Manchester United hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League, finishing 3-1. Goals: Casemiro (53'), R. Barkley (64'), M. Cunha (71'), B. Sesko (81'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 8 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$2081.52 (ROI: +19.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 1.93.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United. Average expected value was 5.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$800.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa -0.5. Average expected value was 3.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.5% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa -0.5. Average expected value was 3.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.7% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 53'. Casemiro scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Aston Villa -0.5 and Manchester United. Average expected value was 20.3%, with a combined stake of $3085. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 22.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 4 of 5 trades won, netting +$1488.80. ### Wave 7 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 58'. Casemiro scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa -1. Average expected value was 52.1%, with a combined stake of $578. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 49.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Manchester United leading 1-0 at 61'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Aston Villa -1 and Aston Villa -1.5 and Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 37.1%, with a combined stake of $4309. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 48.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$1792.73.

- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 42.6% (49.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -1: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 45.5% (48.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -1: AI saw 93.7% vs market's 45.5% (48.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -1.5: AI saw 94.1% vs market's 56.3% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa -1.5: AI saw 93.8% vs market's 56.3% (37.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$949.07 (ROI: +24.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$738.80 (ROI: +20.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$393.65 (ROI: +11.6%)

Possession was 53%–47% in Manchester United's favor. Manchester United had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Aston Villa's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Manchester United 0.84 — Aston Villa 0.96. Corners: 6-4.