Manchester City3 - 0Crystal Palace
Manchester City1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Manchester City hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 3-0. Goals: A. Semenyo (32'), O. Marmoush (40'), Savinho (84'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1023.93 (ROI: +93.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.75 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.75. Average expected value was 41.0%, with a combined stake of $1101. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1023.93.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 51.8% (17.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1023.93 (ROI: +93.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 72–28 in Manchester City's favor. Manchester City had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Manchester City 1.43 — Crystal Palace 0.65. Corners: 9-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 76.3% / 16.5% / 11.3% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the likelihood of Over 3.25 goals.
Manchester City secured a dominant 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. The 1x2 market accurately priced Manchester City as heavy favorites, aligning with the actual outcome. In the Handicap market, City comfortably covered the -1.5 Asian Handicap, with the OddsFlow model showing a marginal edge on the favorite. However, the most significant **market inefficiency** was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the closing line for Over 3.25 goals having a 52.36% implied probability, the match concluded with only 3 goals. This meant the 'Under 3.25 Goals' bet, priced at 1.98 (50.51% implied probability), proved to be the **EV+ signal**. Bookmakers slightly overestimated the scoring potential, offering value for those who faded the public sentiment towards higher goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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