Liverpool1 - 1Tottenham
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 50' — and still finish +$5767?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Tottenham in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: D. Szoboszlai (18'), D. Szoboszlai (19'), Richarlison (90'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$5767.20 (ROI: +147.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tottenham -1.5. Average expected value was 56.8%, with a combined stake of $1893. The sharpest edge was on Tottenham -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.4% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 54.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2839.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 50'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Tottenham -1. Average expected value was 58.6%, with a combined stake of $2028. The sharpest edge was on Tottenham -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2927.70.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 37.4% (59.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham -1.5: AI saw 94.4% vs market's 40.0% (54.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham -1.5: AI saw 94.2% vs market's 40.0% (54.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap Tottenham -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 44.4% (52.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$2969.70 (ROI: +158.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$2797.50 (ROI: +136.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64%–36% in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Tottenham's 12 (7 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 1.32 — Tottenham 1.14. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +147.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2969.70.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +147.1% ROI on 4 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2969.70.
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