Liverpool1 - 2Manchester City
Liverpool1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Manchester City in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: D. Szoboszlai (74'), B. Silva (84'), E. Haaland (90' pen), R. Cherki (90'). Liverpool received a red card (D. Szoboszlai, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$129.43 (ROI: +97.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.1 to 2.02; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester City 0. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $133. The sharpest edge was on Manchester City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$129.43.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$129.43 (ROI: +97.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Liverpool's deficit. Liverpool had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Manchester City's 15 (7 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 1.21 — Manchester City 2.73. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +97.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated Manchester City's 1x2 win probability.
The Premier League clash between Liverpool and Manchester City concluded 1-2, favoring Manchester City. Our OddsFlow model indicates a significant Market Inefficiency in the 1x2 Moneyline. The closing line implied Liverpool had a 43.48% chance of victory, while Manchester City was priced at 33.44%. The actual outcome saw Manchester City secure the win, demonstrating clear Value on the away side. The Asian Handicap market, set at -0.25 for Manchester City (52.63% to cover), proved efficient as City covered the spread. Similarly, the Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 3.25 and a lean towards the Under (54.35%), was also efficient as the match ended with 3 total goals, validating the Under position. The primary error by bookmakers was underpricing Manchester City's outright win probability.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +97.5% ROI on 1 trades.
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