Liverpool2 - 0Fulham
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 2 times at 35', 40' — and still finish $-1058?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Fulham in the Premier League, finishing 2-0. Goals: R. Ngumoha (36'), M. Salah (40'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1057.68 (ROI: -24.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.51 to 1.67.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Fulham -0.5 and Draw and Over 2.5 and Liverpool and Fulham -1. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $3614. The sharpest edge was on Fulham -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 47.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 1 of 7 trades won, netting $-1545.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 40'. M. Salah scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Liverpool. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $671. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 17.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$487.82.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Fulham -1: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 40.0% (47.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Fulham -1: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 40.0% (46.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Moneyline Liverpool: AI saw 75.0% vs market's 57.9% (17.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Moneyline Liverpool: AI saw 65.1% vs market's 52.4% (12.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-512.18 (ROI: -22.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-545.50 (ROI: -27.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 18 shots (5 on target) versus Fulham's 19 (4 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 1.81 — Fulham 1.09. Corners: 6-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -24.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-512.18.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 59.9% / 23.1% / 20.5% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Minimal; the market accurately priced all key outcomes.
The Premier League fixture between Liverpool and Fulham concluded with a 2-0 victory for the home side. The 1x2 market accurately predicted a Liverpool win with a closing probability of 59.88%. In the Handicap Asian market, Liverpool successfully covered the -0.75 line, a scenario the market assigned a 54.05% probability. Crucially, the Totals (O/U 3.25) market proved highly efficient, with the 'Under' hitting as only 2 goals were scored, aligning perfectly with the market's 54.05% probability for the Under. Overall, the OddsFlow model indicates strong market efficiency across all key lines for this fixture.
A tough session at -24.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-512.18.
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