Liverpool3 - 1Crystal Palace
Liverpool2 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 3-1. Goals: A. Isak (35'), A. Robertson (40'), A. Robertson (41'), D. Munoz (71'), D. Munoz (72'), F. Wirtz (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.88; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.46 to 1.57.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 72' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Liverpool leading 2-1 at 72'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace -1. Average expected value was 62.0%, with a combined stake of $1852. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 37.4% (59.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 37.4% (59.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–41% in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 0.87 — Crystal Palace 1.3. Corners: 5-6.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 63.7% / 22.2% / 17.6% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Over 3 Goals line presented a subtle value opportunity, confirmed by the outcome.
Liverpool secured a convincing 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace. The 1x2 market saw Liverpool as the clear favorite with an OddsFlow ML win probability of 63.69%, which materialized as expected. In the Handicap market, Liverpool successfully covered the -1 line, aligning with the model's 51.55% probability. The most notable observation comes from the Totals market (Over/Under 3 goals). With 4 total goals scored, the 'Over' bet was successful. OddsFlow's model assigned a 53.19% probability to 'Over 3 Goals' at closing. This outcome confirms a subtle Value Signal detected by our model, indicating that the market's pricing, while seemingly efficient, offered a slight probabilistic edge on the 'Over' that proved profitable.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$0.00.
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