Liverpool1 - 1Chelsea
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 15', 25', 35', 47', 65' — and still finish +$2784?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Chelsea in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: R. Gravenberch (6'), E. Fernandez (35'), C. Palmer (49'). OddsFlow deployed 23 trades across 6 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$2784.20 (ROI: +23.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.96; the Over/Under stayed at 3.25 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Liverpool -0.5. Average expected value was 27.6%, with a combined stake of $719. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-719.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea -1. Average expected value was 25.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 23.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$220.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Chelsea -1. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $2332. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 26.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$465.20. ### Wave 4 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 35'. E. Fernandez scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Liverpool and Chelsea 0 and Under 3.5 and Liverpool -0.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 19.4%, with a combined stake of $4548. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 41.7% — a 37.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.4. **Result:** 4 of 9 trades won, netting $-48.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after E. Fernandez's equalizer at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Liverpool +0.5 and Under 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 24.0%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 41.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 5 of 7 trades won, netting +$2266.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 65'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$600.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool +0.5: AI saw 84.2% vs market's 42.6% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool +0.5: AI saw 83.9% vs market's 42.6% (41.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Liverpool: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 41.7% (37.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -1: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 47.6% (26.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea -1: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 47.6% (26.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/4L, +$2188.20 (ROI: +42.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/4L, +$1595.00 (ROI: +30.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-280.00 (ROI: -40.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-719.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Liverpool's deficit. Liverpool had 8 shots (3 on target) versus Chelsea's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 0.51 — Chelsea 0.47. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2188.20.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 51.3% / 25.6% / 26.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly misjudged the Total Goals (O/U 3.25), favoring Over when Under hit.
The Premier League fixture between Liverpool and Chelsea concluded in a 1-1 draw, resulting in a total of 2 goals. The 1x2 market accurately reflected the draw as a less probable outcome (25.64% implied probability), offering value for those who identified it. In the Handicap market, Liverpool (-0.5) was the slight favorite to cover (51.02%), but with a 1-1 draw, Chelsea effectively covered their +0.5 handicap, indicating a market overestimation of Liverpool's winning margin. The most notable inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 3.25 goals) market. The market leaned towards the Over with an implied probability of 52.91%, yet the match finished with only 2 goals, making the Under a clear **EV+** outcome. Bookmakers significantly mispriced the total goals expectation.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.6% ROI on 23 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2188.20.
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