Liverpool1 - 1Brentford
LiverpoolWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 10', 35', 46', 60', 100' — and still finish +$2584?
Match Overview
Liverpool hosted Brentford in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: C. Jones (58'), K. Schade (64'). OddsFlow deployed 35 trades across 6 waves, achieving 83% precision with a net result of +$2583.80 (ROI: +91.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 2.06; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.68 to 1.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.25. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brentford -1 and Brentford -0.5. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $215. The sharpest edge was on Brentford -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 16.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$191.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Brentford -0.5 and Under 3.25 and Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 29.0%, with a combined stake of $1474. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 73.2% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 21 trades won, netting +$1907.60. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $166. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.0% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 8.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$470.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Liverpool leading 1-0 at 60'. C. Jones scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Liverpool. Average expected value was 31.5%, with a combined stake of $450. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 73.8% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 21.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-450.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 100' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 100'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.25. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$455.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 73.2% vs market's 49.5% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 73.2% vs market's 49.5% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 49.5% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Liverpool: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 52.6% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Moneyline Liverpool: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 52.6% (21.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/2L/1V, +$648.70 (ROI: +92.8%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/2L/1V, +$648.70 (ROI: +92.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$646.40 (ROI: +90.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 7W/2L/1V, +$630.70 (ROI: +91.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.30 (ROI: +93.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61–39 in Liverpool's favor. Liverpool had 24 shots (8 on target) versus Brentford's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Liverpool 2.84 — Brentford 1.08. Corners: 14-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$648.70.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 54.6% / 23.9% / 25.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market severely undervalued the draw outcome.
In the Premier League clash between Liverpool and Brentford, which concluded in a 1-1 draw, the market exhibited a notable inefficiency. The 1x2 market heavily priced a Liverpool victory with a 54.64% implied probability, while the draw was significantly undervalued at 23.92%. This outcome represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the draw. For the Asian Handicap, Liverpool, starting at -0.75, failed to cover the spread, indicating a miss for those backing the favourite. Conversely, Brentford on +0.75 easily covered. The Goals Over/Under market set at 3.25 goals saw 2 total goals, resulting in an 'Under' outcome, which aligned with the market's slight lean towards the Under (51.81% probability).
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.8% ROI on 35 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$648.70.
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