Leeds3 - 1Nottingham Forest
Leeds2 trades, 50% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Leeds hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 3-1. Goals: J. Bogle (26'), N. Okafor (30'), D. Calvert-Lewin (49'), L. Lucca (86'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$181.81 (ROI: +38.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.92; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Nottingham Forest -0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $478. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 9.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$181.81.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$181.81 (ROI: +38.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57%–43% in Leeds's favor. Leeds had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Leeds 2.5 — Nottingham Forest 1.16. Corners: 5-9.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +38.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.6% / 29.9% / 28.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Strong Value Signal on Over 2.25 Goals
In the Premier League fixture between Leeds and Nottingham Forest, which concluded 3:1, OddsFlow AI's pre-match analysis provided significant insights. The 1x2 market saw Leeds as the market favorite with a 44.64% win probability, aligning with their 3-1 victory. On the Asian Handicap, Leeds at -0.25 was predicted to cover with a 52.08% probability, a forecast validated as they won by a two-goal margin. However, the most notable efficiency was in the Totals market (Over/Under 2.25 goals). With a strong 53.76% probability for the Over, the market sentiment correctly anticipated a higher-scoring affair, which materialized with four goals. This outcome represents a clear value signal for the Over 2.25 goals line.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +38.0% ROI on 2 trades.
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