Leeds0 - 1Manchester City
LeedsWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Leeds hosted Manchester City in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Semenyo (45'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.12 to 2.03; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 2.04; the home moneyline drifted out from 5 to 5.12.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Leeds +0.25. Average expected value was 7.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Leeds +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in Leeds's deficit. Leeds had 14 shots (2 on target) versus Manchester City's 14 (5 on target). Expected goals: Leeds 1.47 — Manchester City 1.77. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 19.5% / 24.3% / 59.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Under 2.75 closing line offered significant EV+ due to the low goal count.
The Premier League fixture between Leeds and Manchester City concluded 0-1. The 1x2 market correctly identified Manchester City as the market favorite with a 59.52% win probability, and the outcome aligned. In the Asian Handicap market, Manchester City -0.75 closed with a 52.91% probability to cover. While Manchester City secured a 1-0 victory, this resulted in a half-win for the favorite, indicating the market was somewhat accurate but potentially over-priced a full cover. The Totals market (O/U 2.75) showed a clear lean towards the Under at 53.48%. With only 1 goal scored in the match, the Under 2.75 was a decisive winner, indicating significant Closing Line Value (CLV) and an EV+ opportunity for those who backed the Under.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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