Leeds3 - 1Burnley
LeedsWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 28', 32', 47', 53' — and still finish +$706?
Match Overview
Leeds hosted Burnley in the Premier League, finishing 3-1. Goals: A. Stach (8'), N. Okafor (52'), D. Calvert-Lewin (56'), L. Tchaouna (71'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$705.80 (ROI: +15.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Leeds leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Burnley -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $2296. The sharpest edge was on Burnley -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 41.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1170.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Leeds leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley -1.5. Average expected value was 42.4%, with a combined stake of $530. The sharpest edge was on Burnley -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 39.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$795.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Leeds leading 1-0 at 32'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley -1.5. Average expected value was 37.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Burnley -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 35.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$240.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Leeds leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 64.5% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Leeds leading 1-0 at 53'. N. Okafor scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 68.7% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1.5: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 37.4% (41.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1.5: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 37.4% (41.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 40.0% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1.5: AI saw 80.7% vs market's 45.5% (35.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$378.72 (ROI: +14.1%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$240.00 (ROI: +120.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$87.07 (ROI: +5.3%)
Match Statistics
Leeds had 17 shots (7 on target) versus Burnley's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +15.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$378.72.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 73.0% / 20.0% / 10.7% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 48.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Value Bet on Leeds -1.5 Handicap
Leeds secured a decisive 3-1 victory over Burnley. In the 1x2 market, Leeds was correctly priced as a strong favorite with a 72.99% implied win probability. The Totals market also accurately anticipated goals, with the Over 2.75 line closing at 52.91% probability, ultimately cashing with 4 goals scored. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Asian Handicap. Despite Leeds comfortably covering the -1.5 handicap by winning with a two-goal margin, the market assigned them only a 48.31% probability to do so. This presents a clear positive expected value (EV+) signal for bettors who identified the strength of Leeds at -1.5 goals, demonstrating a Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity against the closing odds.
A positive result with +15.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$705.80. Top performer: Active Trader at +$378.72.
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