Leeds1 - 0Brighton
LeedsWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 35', 47', 54' — and still finish +$440?
Match Overview
Leeds hosted Brighton in the Premier League, finishing 1-0. Goals: D. Calvert-Lewin (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 4 waves, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$440.49 (ROI: +29.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 2.04; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.09 to 3.45.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Leeds. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $25. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$58.25. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Leeds +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 1.75. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $901. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.5% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 25.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** 8 of 11 trades won, netting +$390.14. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 14.1%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 66.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 16.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $265. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-107.90.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 53.2% (25.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 53.2% (24.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 53.8% (24.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.75: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 53.8% (24.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 61.9% (16.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$278.80 (ROI: +48.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/3L, +$211.34 (ROI: +33.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$58.25 (ROI: +233.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-107.90 (ROI: -40.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 34–66 in Leeds's deficit. Leeds had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Brighton's 18 (8 on target). Expected goals: Leeds 0.97 — Brighton 2.46. Corners: 7-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +29.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$278.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 29.0% / 27.8% / 46.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the total goals, failing to price the Under 2.75 Goals as a strong EV+ opportunity, and also undervalued Leeds' outright win.
Leeds secured a 1-0 victory against Brighton in the Premier League. The 1x2 market closing probabilities positioned Brighton as the clear favorite (46.08% win probability) with Leeds as a significant underdog (28.99%). This was a major market misjudgment, resulting in strong Closing Line Value for a Leeds outright win. In the Handicap market, Brighton -0.25 was the favored outcome (53.19% to cover), which also proved incorrect as Leeds won outright, covering their +0.25 line comfortably. The most notable inefficiency, however, was in the Totals (O/U) market. Despite a slight lean towards Under 2.75 goals (53.76% probability), the actual outcome of 1 goal rendered the pre-match probabilities for "Over" significantly inflated (48.78%). The market failed to fully account for the low-scoring potential of this fixture, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +29.5% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$278.80.
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