Fulham2 - 0Newcastle
FulhamWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 10', 19', 35', 41', 47', 50' — and still finish +$162?
Match Overview
Fulham hosted Newcastle in the Premier League, finishing 2-0. Goals: I. Diop (19'), I. Diop (20'), T. Cairney (80'). OddsFlow deployed 24 trades across 7 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$161.57 (ROI: +7.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.07 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 2 to 1.89.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 37.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.1% — a 24.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.08. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle -1. Average expected value was 39.8%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 37.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fulham leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 3.25 and Newcastle -0.5 and Under 3 and Newcastle -1. Average expected value was 37.4%, with a combined stake of $1076. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 43.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 6 of 10 trades won, netting +$176.08. ### Wave 5 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fulham leading 1-0 at 41'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 18.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 56.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$300.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fulham leading 1-0 at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Fulham. Average expected value was 39.1%, with a combined stake of $150. The sharpest edge was on Fulham (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 60.2% probability versus the market's implied 34.7% — a 25.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.88. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$144.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 50' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fulham leading 1-0 at 50'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fulham and Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 47.5%, with a combined stake of $550. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.9% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 36.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-168.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 95.9% vs market's 51.9% (43.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 95.5% vs market's 51.9% (43.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -0.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 40.0% (43.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -0.5: AI saw 83.0% vs market's 40.0% (43.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 19'** — Asian Handicap Newcastle -1: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 51.3% (37.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/3L/1V, +$268.00 (ROI: +27.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/3L/1V, +$183.58 (ROI: +18.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-300.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47–53 in Fulham's deficit. Fulham had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Newcastle's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Fulham 1.7 — Newcastle 0.22. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +7.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$268.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.2% / 26.5% / 39.7% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Fulham's outright win potential (EV+).
In the Premier League fixture between Fulham and Newcastle, Fulham secured a definitive 2-0 victory. The 1x2 market demonstrated a clear inefficiency, as the market favorite, Newcastle, was priced with a 39.68% implied win probability, while Fulham’s actual 2-0 home win occurred despite a lower 37.17% market probability. On the Asian Handicap (0 line), Newcastle was slightly favored to cover with 52.91%, yet Fulham comfortably covered the spread with their two-goal margin. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market, set at 3 goals, leaned towards the Over with a 52.91% probability. However, the match concluded with only 2 goals, resulting in an Under outcome. This indicates the market overestimated the goal-scoring potential. OddsFlow AI detected significant Closing Line Value for backing Fulham outright and for the Under 3 Goals.
A positive result with +7.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$161.57. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$268.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.