Fulham1 - 2Everton
FulhamWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Fulham hosted Everton in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: R. Jimenez (18'), V. Mykolenko (18' OG), K. Dewsbury-Hall (76'), B. Leno (83' OG). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 23' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fulham leading 1-0 at 23'. V. Mykolenko scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fulham -1. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fulham -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.4% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Fulham's favor. Fulham had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Everton's 16 (3 on target). Expected goals: Fulham 1.97 — Everton 1.68. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.7% / 30.2% / 26.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant mispricing of Everton's outright win probability.
The Fulham vs Everton match concluded with a 1-2 scoreline. The 1x2 market implied Fulham had a 45.66% chance to win, making them the clear favorite. Everton, with a 26.95% implied probability, secured a 2-1 victory, indicating significant Closing Line Value (CLV) on Everton to win outright. In the Asian Handicap market, the closing line was Fulham -0.25. The market priced Fulham at 53.19% to cover, yet Everton won, thereby covering the +0.25 line. This further highlights the market's underestimation of Everton. The Goals Over/Under 2.25 market showed a slight lean towards Over (51.81%). With 3 goals scored, the Over bet was a winner, aligning with market sentiment. The primary market inefficiency was the significant mispricing of Everton's outright win probability and their ability to cover the Asian Handicap.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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