Fulham

3 - 1

Burnley

Fulham hosted Burnley in the Premier League, finishing 3-1. Goals: Z. Flemming (60'), J. King (67'), H. Wilson (73'), R. Jimenez (90' pen). Burnley received a red card (J. Laurent, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 4 waves, achieving 41% precision with a net result of $-1474.68 (ROI: -15.7%).

The Asian Handicap remained steady at -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Burnley -0.5 and Draw and Burnley -1. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $4516. The sharpest edge was on Burnley -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 27.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-4516.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 32.0% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 8.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Burnley leading 0-1 at 60'. Z. Flemming scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Fulham +0.5 and Burnley. Average expected value was 25.2%, with a combined stake of $2857. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 4 of 5 trades won, netting +$1541.33. ### Wave 4 — Minute 74' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Fulham leading 2-1 at 74'. H. Wilson scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Fulham. Average expected value was 35.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Fulham (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 41.7% — a 38.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.4. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2000.00.

- **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Fulham: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 41.7% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Moneyline Fulham: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 43.5% (36.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 51.3% (27.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Burnley -1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 52.6% (27.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$26.33 (ROI: +0.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-590.00 (ROI: -15.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-911.00 (ROI: -43.2%)

Possession was 55%–45% in Fulham's favor. Fulham had 21 shots (6 on target) versus Burnley's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Fulham 2.92 — Burnley 1.24. Corners: 6-6.