Fulham0 - 1Bournemouth
FulhamWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 15', 25' — and still finish +$2558?
Match Overview
Fulham hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: Rayan (53'). Bournemouth received a red card (R. Christie, 39'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 3 waves, achieving 88% precision with a net result of +$2557.70 (ROI: +62.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.86 to 2.04; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.57 to 2.72.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $490. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$426.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth 0. Average expected value was 21.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 19.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$160.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Bournemouth 0 and Under 2.5 and Bournemouth and Draw. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $3383. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.8% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 5 of 6 trades won, netting +$1971.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth 0: AI saw 75.8% vs market's 55.6% (20.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth 0: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 55.6% (19.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth 0: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 55.6% (19.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1121.50 (ROI: +50.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$849.90 (ROI: +72.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$426.30 (ROI: +87.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$160.00 (ROI: +80.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60–40 in Fulham's favor. Fulham had 13 shots (2 on target) versus Bournemouth's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Fulham 0.91 — Bournemouth 0.73. Corners: 10-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +62.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1121.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 36.8% / 27.2% / 38.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market accurately priced the Under 3.0 goals, demonstrating strong efficiency.
The Premier League clash between Fulham and Bournemouth concluded with a 0-1 victory for the away side. In the 1x2 market, Bournemouth was a marginal market favorite (38.91%) and delivered, showing reasonable efficiency. On the Asian Handicap (0 line), Bournemouth's win meant they covered, aligning with the slight market lean towards them (52.36%). However, the most notable efficiency was observed in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 3.0, the market heavily favored the Under at 53.48%. The actual total of 1 goal proved this to be an accurate assessment, providing a strong Value Signal for Under bettors. This suggests a notable Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under, as the market correctly anticipated a low-scoring affair.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +62.8% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1121.50.
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