Everton1 - 3Sunderland
EvertonWhy did AI enter 4 times at 37', 43', 48', 60' — and still finish +$395?
Match Overview
Everton hosted Sunderland in the Premier League, finishing 1-3. Goals: M. Rohl (43'), B. Brobbey (59'), E. Le Fee (81'), W. Isidor (90'). OddsFlow deployed 25 trades across 4 waves, achieving 52% precision with a net result of +$394.90 (ROI: +18.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.91; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sunderland 0. Average expected value was 18.3%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.2% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 16.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$427.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Everton leading 1-0 at 43'. M. Rohl scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Over 1.5 and Everton. Average expected value was 34.8%, with a combined stake of $700. The sharpest edge was on Everton (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 74.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$294.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Everton leading 1-0 at 48'. M. Rohl scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Sunderland -0.5 and Under 2.25 and Sunderland -1. Average expected value was 32.5%, with a combined stake of $882. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 48.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 4 of 10 trades won, netting $-62.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after B. Brobbey's equalizer at 59'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $265. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-265.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 92.8% vs market's 44.4% (48.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 44.4% (48.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Moneyline Everton: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 44.4% (29.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.2% (22.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.4% (22.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 6W/5L, +$152.50 (ROI: +15.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$142.50 (ROI: +142.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 6W/7L, +$99.90 (ROI: +9.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48–52 in Everton's deficit. Everton had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Sunderland's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Everton 1.07 — Sunderland 0.73. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +18.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$152.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.6% / 26.5% / 23.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Sunderland's chances of an outright away win.
The match between Everton and Sunderland concluded with a decisive 1-3 away victory for Sunderland. The 1x2 market heavily favored Everton with a home win probability of 52.63%, while Sunderland's outright win was priced at a mere 23.75% implied probability. This represents a significant mispricing, as Sunderland secured a comfortable victory. On the Asian Handicap market, Everton was set as the -0.5 favorite, yet failed to cover, with Sunderland easily beating the +0.5 line. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market indicated a lean towards the Under 2.75 goals (53.76% probability), but the match ended with 4 goals, strongly hitting the Over. This indicates a clear oversight in market sentiment regarding the goal-scoring potential. The OddsFlow model identified substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on both Sunderland to win and the Over 2.75 goals.
A positive result with +18.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$394.90. Top performer: Active Trader at +$152.50.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.