Everton0 - 1Manchester United
Everton1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Everton hosted Manchester United in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: B. Sesko (71'), B. Sesko (72'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$657.17 (ROI: +120.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.99; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.51 to 3.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $548. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$657.17.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$657.17 (ROI: +120.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Everton's deficit. Everton had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Manchester United's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Everton 0.65 — Manchester United 1.27. Corners: 10-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +120.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 25.2% / 25.8% / 52.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market accurately priced the Under 2.75 goals, validating its low-scoring expectation.
Context: Manchester United secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Everton in the Premier League. The 1x2 Market: The market accurately priced Manchester United as the clear favorite with a 52.08% implied win probability, which aligned with the actual outcome. No significant 1x2 market inefficiency was detected; the Closing Line Value (CLV) on Man Utd would have been strong for early bettors. The Handicap: Manchester United successfully covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap, winning by a single goal. The market's slight lean towards Manchester United covering at 51.81% was validated by the result, showing market efficiency in this regard. The Totals (O/U): With only 1 goal scored against a Closing Line of 2.75 Goals, the match strongly favored the Under. While the market probabilities for Over and Under were close (51.28% each), the actual outcome provided clear EV+ for the Under, confirming the market's underlying sentiment for a low-scoring encounter. Verdict: The most significant market signal was the accurate anticipation of a low-scoring match, with the Under 2.75 goals proving to be a confirmed value signal.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +120.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.