Everton1 - 2Liverpool
EvertonWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 38', 44' — and still finish +$2274?
Match Overview
Everton hosted Liverpool in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: I. Ndiaye (27'), M. Salah (29'), M. Salah (30'), Beto (54'), Beto (55'), V. van Dijk (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 3 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$2274.00 (ROI: +22.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.94; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 3.47 to 3.32.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Liverpool 0 and Over 2.5 and Over 1.5 and Draw and Everton +0.5 and Liverpool. Average expected value was 12.5%, with a combined stake of $9000. The sharpest edge was on Everton +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.4% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 25.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 12 of 18 trades won, netting +$1374.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Liverpool leading 0-1 at 38'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Everton +1. Average expected value was 23.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Everton +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.9% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 21.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$450.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Liverpool leading 0-1 at 44'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Everton +1. Average expected value was 24.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Everton +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.4% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 22.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$450.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Everton +0.5: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 41.2% (25.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Everton +0.5: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 41.2% (25.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Everton +0.5: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 41.2% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Everton +1: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 52.6% (22.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Everton +1: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 52.6% (21.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$908.00 (ROI: +25.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$895.50 (ROI: +25.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$470.50 (ROI: +15.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44%–56% in Everton's deficit. Everton had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Liverpool's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Everton 0.8 — Liverpool 1.11. Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +22.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$908.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.1% / 29.1% / 43.7% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market undervalued Liverpool's ability to cover the -0.25 Asian Handicap.
The Merseyside Derby saw Liverpool secure a 2-1 victory over Everton. In the 1x2 market, Liverpool was correctly identified as the favorite with an implied probability of 43.67%. The actual win affirmed this market sentiment. The Goals Over/Under market at 2.5 goals had a clear lean towards the Over (54.05% probability), which proved accurate with a total of 3 goals scored. The most notable inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market, set at Everton +0.25 (Liverpool -0.25). Despite the market slightly favoring Everton to cover their +0.25 line (51.55% probability), Liverpool, winning by a single goal, successfully covered their -0.25 handicap. This suggests a potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on Liverpool -0.25, indicating the market undervalued Liverpool's ability to win by a margin that would cover the spread.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +22.7% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$908.00.
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