Everton1 - 2Bournemouth
EvertonWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 33' — and still finish +$1004?
Match Overview
Everton hosted Bournemouth in the Premier League, finishing 1-2. Goals: I. Ndiaye (42' pen), Rayan (61'), A. Adli (64'), A. Adli (65'). Everton received a red card (J. O'Brien, 69'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$1004.11 (ROI: +56.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.11 to 2.12; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 1.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Bournemouth. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $970. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.8% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.875. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1818.75. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Everton. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $815. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-814.64.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$1004.11 (ROI: +56.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Everton's favor. Everton had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Bournemouth's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Everton 2.64 — Bournemouth 1.33. Corners: 7-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.3% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.6% / 29.4% / 32.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Bournemouth outright win in 1x2 market
The Premier League clash between Everton and Bournemouth concluded with a 1-2 victory for the visitors. The 1x2 market exhibited a significant inefficiency, with the OddsFlow model indicating Everton as the slight favourite for a home win (40.65% probability) against Bournemouth's 32.68%. Despite this, Bournemouth secured an outright victory, highlighting a clear value signal on the away win. In the Asian Handicap market, the model accurately predicted Bournemouth (+0.25) as more likely to cover, given their 54.64% probability against Everton's 47.17% on -0.25, which proved correct. The Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals) showed modest efficiency, with the model leaning slightly towards the Over (52.36% probability), aligning with the actual outcome of 3 goals. The primary market inefficiency was the underestimation of Bournemouth's outright win potential in the 1x2 market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +56.3% ROI on 2 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
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