Crystal Palace0 - 0West Ham
Crystal PalaceWhy did AI enter 3 times at 15', 25', 65' — and still finish +$4426?
Match Overview
Crystal Palace hosted West Ham in the Premier League, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$4426.00 (ROI: +93.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.32 to 2.61.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting West Ham 0. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on West Ham 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 15.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting West Ham 0 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $4031. The sharpest edge was on West Ham 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 18.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$4062.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap West Ham 0: AI saw 69.5% vs market's 51.3% (18.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap West Ham 0: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 51.3% (16.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap West Ham 0: AI saw 67.1% vs market's 51.3% (15.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$2125.00 (ROI: +104.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1937.50 (ROI: +96.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +51.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Crystal Palace's favor. Crystal Palace had 9 shots (1 on target) versus West Ham's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Crystal Palace 0.68 — West Ham 0.61. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2125.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 38.3% / 29.0% / 35.5% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of Under 2.5 goals in the Totals market.
The fixture between Crystal Palace and West Ham concluded in a 0-0 draw. In the 1x2 market, the draw was priced at an implied probability of 28.99%. While the market did not outright miss the possibility, the actual 0-0 outcome suggests the market slightly undervalued this result, favoring a home win (38.31%) as the most probable outcome. For the Asian Handicap (line 0), the market leaned towards Crystal Palace to cover (53.19%), which did not materialize with the draw. The most glaring inefficiency was in the Totals market (Over/Under 2.5). The market assigned 51.55% to Over 2.5 and 51.02% to Under 2.5, indicating a slight lean towards more goals. However, the match ended with 0 total goals, a definitive "Under" outcome. This highlights a significant undervaluation of Under 2.5 goals by the closing line, offering substantial value for astute bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.6% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2125.00.
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