Crystal Palace2 - 1Newcastle
Crystal PalaceWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 28', 39', 43' — and still finish +$810?
Match Overview
Crystal Palace hosted Newcastle in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: W. Osula (43'), J. Mateta (80'), J. Mateta (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 4 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$810.50 (ROI: +14.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 2.13; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.8 to 2.91.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $1002. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.9% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1002.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.0% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 43'. W. Osula scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Newcastle and Crystal Palace +0.5 and Crystal Palace +1. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $3500. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 37.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 6 of 7 trades won, netting +$2812.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +0.5: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 36.4% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +0.5: AI saw 74.7% vs market's 37.4% (37.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +1: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 54.1% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +1: AI saw 75.8% vs market's 56.3% (19.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$752.50 (ROI: +30.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$58.00 (ROI: +1.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Crystal Palace's deficit. Crystal Palace had 11 shots (5 on target) versus Newcastle's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Crystal Palace 2.34 — Newcastle 1.13. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +14.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$752.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.4% / 28.3% / 40.2% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Crystal Palace's outright win probability.
Crystal Palace defeated Newcastle 2-1 in a Premier League fixture. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this outcome, with Newcastle entering as the market favorite at an implied 40.16% win probability, compared to Crystal Palace's 34.36%. This proved to be a considerable market inefficiency as Crystal Palace secured the outright victory. In the Handicap market, with a 0 line, Newcastle was still marginally favored to cover (54.95% probability), yet Crystal Palace's 2-1 win meant they comfortably covered the spread. Furthermore, the Totals market, set at 2.75 goals, showed a slight lean towards the Under (51.81% implied probability). However, the match produced 3 goals, resulting in the Over hitting. OddsFlow's model detected clear Value Signals against the market's consensus on the outright winner and goals total.
A positive result with +14.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$810.50. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$752.50.
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