Crystal Palace0 - 0Leeds
Crystal PalaceWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 45' — and still finish +$125?
Match Overview
Crystal Palace hosted Leeds in the Premier League, finishing 0-0. Leeds received a red card (G. Gudmundsson, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of +$125.00 (ROI: +3.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.88; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.24 to 2.54.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Leeds and Leeds 0. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $2941. The sharpest edge was on Leeds 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 29.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. Leeds down to 10 men (G. Gudmundsson red card 45'). 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 41.4% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1125.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Leeds 0: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 55.6% (29.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Leeds 0: AI saw 84.0% vs market's 55.6% (28.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Leeds: AI saw 53.3% vs market's 38.1% (15.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 41.4% vs market's 30.8% (10.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$625.00 (ROI: +31.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -34.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 66%–34% in Crystal Palace's favor. Crystal Palace had 11 shots (0 on target) versus Leeds's 10 (3 on target). Expected goals: Crystal Palace 0.56 — Leeds 1.12. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +3.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$625.00.
A positive result with +3.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$125.00. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$625.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.