Crystal Palace2 - 2Everton
Crystal PalaceWhy did AI enter 5 times at 15', 25', 33', 47', 54' — and still finish +$837?
Match Overview
Crystal Palace hosted Everton in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Goals: J. Tarkowski (6'), I. Sarr (34'), Beto (47'), J. Mateta (77'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$837.49 (ROI: +10.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.65 to 3.06.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Everton leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace +0.5. Average expected value was 29.5%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 27.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$270.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Everton leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Everton and Under 2.5 and Crystal Palace +0.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $3132. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 28.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-443.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Everton leading 0-1 at 33'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Everton 0 and Under 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 18.8%, with a combined stake of $3004. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 31.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-254.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Beto's equalizer at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 24.7%, with a combined stake of $1207. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 89.2% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 31.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$877.49. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Everton leading 1-2 at 54'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace +1. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 20.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$387.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 89.2% vs market's 57.9% (31.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 50.0% (31.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 33'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 50.0% (30.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +0.5: AI saw 70.7% vs market's 42.1% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace +0.5: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 42.1% (28.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, +$547.99 (ROI: +12.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$270.00 (ROI: +135.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, +$19.50 (ROI: +0.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Crystal Palace's favor. Crystal Palace had 20 shots (8 on target) versus Everton's 12 (6 on target). Expected goals: Crystal Palace 2.64 — Everton 1.44. Corners: 5-9.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +10.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$547.99.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 32.7% / 29.8% / 41.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The O/U 2.5 market significantly mispriced the total goals, leaning Under when a high-scoring draw occurred.
The Premier League fixture between Crystal Palace and Everton concluded in a 2-2 draw. The 1x2 market showed Everton as the favorite with a 40.98% win probability, significantly underestimating the likelihood of a draw (29.76%). In the Asian Handicap market, with Everton at -0.25, Crystal Palace (the underdog) successfully covered the spread with the draw. The most notable market inefficiency was in the Goals Over/Under 2.5 market. Despite the market leaning towards the Under (53.19%), the match produced 4 goals, resulting in an easy Over. This demonstrates a clear EV+ opportunity for those who correctly predicted a higher-scoring affair, indicating that the bookmakers got it wrong on the total goals.
A positive result with +10.4% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$837.49. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$547.99.
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