Chelsea3 - 2West Ham
Chelsea3 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Chelsea hosted West Ham in the Premier League, finishing 3-2. Goals: J. Bowen (7'), C. Summerville (36'), Joao Pedro (57'), M. Cucurella (70'), E. Fernandez (90'). West Ham received a red card (J. Todibo, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$195.00 (ROI: +130.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.93; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 20' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** West Ham leading 0-1 at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 0.7%, with a combined stake of $150. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 11.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$195.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 20'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 43.5% (11.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 20'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 43.5% (11.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 20'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 43.5% (11.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$195.00 (ROI: +130.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 71%–29% in Chelsea's favor. Chelsea had 14 shots (6 on target) versus West Ham's 11 (6 on target). Expected goals: Chelsea 2.55 — West Ham 1.12. Corners: 9-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 21.7% / 17.8% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, with a strong lean to Under 3.25 despite 5 actual goals.
Chelsea secured a 3-2 victory against West Ham. In the 1x2 market, Chelsea was the clear favorite (64.1% implied probability), aligning with the outright win. The Asian Handicap closed at Chelsea -1, with a slight lean towards Chelsea covering (51.81%). However, Chelsea's 3-2 win meant they only won by a single goal, failing to cover the -1 line. West Ham effectively covered the +1 handicap. The most notable inefficiency was in the Goals Over/Under market. The closing line was 3.25, with the market leaning towards the Under (53.76% probability). The match produced 5 goals, unequivocally hitting the Over 3.25. This represents a strong EV+ signal for the Over, indicating a significant mispricing by bookmakers.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI on 3 trades.
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