Chelsea1 - 3Nottingham Forest
ChelseaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Chelsea hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 1-3. Goals: T. Awoniyi (2'), Igor Jesus (14' pen), Igor Jesus (15' pen), T. Awoniyi (52'), Joao Pedro (73'), Joao Pedro (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 1.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Nottingham Forest leading 0-1 at 15'. Igor Jesus scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea +0.5. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 29.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +0.5: AI saw 83.9% vs market's 54.1% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in Chelsea's favor. Chelsea had 21 shots (5 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Chelsea 1.93 — Nottingham Forest 2.07. Corners: 9-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.6% / 0.3% / 0.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The outright 1x2 market significantly underestimated Nottingham Forest's win probability.
The Premier League fixture between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest concluded with a surprising 1-3 victory for the away side. OddsFlow analysis reveals a significant **market inefficiency** in the 1x2 betting market. The market priced Chelsea as strong favorites with a 57.47% implied win probability, while Nottingham Forest was given only a 20.41% chance. The actual outcome demonstrates substantial **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on Nottingham Forest, as they secured a clear 2-goal margin win. Furthermore, the Handicap market set Chelsea at -0.75 with a 51.28% chance to cover, a clear misjudgment given Nottingham Forest's comfortable win covering +0.75. The Over/Under 2.75 market, with a slight lean towards the Under (52.08%), also presented an inefficiency as the match produced 4 goals, hitting the **Over**. This indicates that **market sentiment** heavily favored Chelsea, failing to account for Nottingham Forest's offensive capabilities and defensive resilience.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.