Chelsea

0 - 1

Newcastle

Chelsea hosted Newcastle in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Gordon (18'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 7 waves, achieving 11% precision with a net result of $-5591.20 (ROI: -51.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 1.88; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.9.

### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 26'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea and Over 3.5 and Chelsea 0. Average expected value was 33.5%, with a combined stake of $3928. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 41.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-2109.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 31'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea -0.5. Average expected value was 31.2%, with a combined stake of $668. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 27.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-668.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Chelsea +0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $2694. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 35.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$185.80. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 49'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Chelsea -1 and Chelsea -0.5. Average expected value was 11.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Chelsea -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 55'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.4% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 72'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 76' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Newcastle leading 0-1 at 76'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Newcastle 0. Average expected value was 8.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Newcastle 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea 0: AI saw 86.7% vs market's 45.5% (41.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Moneyline Chelsea: AI saw 74.5% vs market's 33.3% (41.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea 0: AI saw 86.3% vs market's 45.5% (40.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +0.5: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 58.8% (35.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Chelsea +0.5: AI saw 94.8% vs market's 58.8% (35.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 1W/6L/1V, $-2636.10 (ROI: -52.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 1W/7L/2V, $-2955.10 (ROI: -50.9%)

Possession was 67%–33% in Chelsea's favor. Chelsea had 20 shots (3 on target) versus Newcastle's 7 (5 on target). Expected goals: Chelsea 1.37 — Newcastle 1.42. Corners: 8-1.