Burnley1 - 1Wolves
BurnleyWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 10' — and still finish +$124?
Match Overview
Burnley hosted Wolves in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. Armstrong (5' pen), Z. Flemming (47'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$124.15 (ROI: +107.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.20. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Wolves leading 0-1 at 10'. A. Armstrong scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley +0.5. Average expected value was 30.3%, with a combined stake of $106. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 27.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$113.95.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +0.5: AI saw 75.7% vs market's 48.2% (27.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$113.95 (ROI: +107.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.20 (ROI: +102.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70–30 in Burnley's favor. Burnley had 16 shots (8 on target) versus Wolves's 16 (4 on target). Expected goals: Burnley 1.27 — Wolves 1.91. Corners: 7-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +107.0% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$113.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 39.4% / 29.1% / 34.7% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market overestimated Over 2.5 goals.
The Premier League clash between Burnley and Wolves concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market priced Burnley as slight favorites at 39.37% implied probability for a win, with a draw at 29.15% and Wolves at 34.72%. The actual outcome was a draw, indicating the market slightly undervalued this possibility. With an Asian Handicap line of 0, the market expected Burnley to win (54.64% probability to cover) over Wolves (47.85%). The draw meant neither team covered the spread, representing a missed expectation for Burnley backers. The most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market (O/U 2.5). Bookmakers heavily leaned towards the Over 2.5 goals with a 53.48% implied probability, compared to 49.5% for the Under. The match ended with a total of 2 goals, resulting in the Under 2.5 hitting. This highlights a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity on the Under. The market significantly overestimated the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +107.0% ROI on 2 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$113.95.
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