Burnley0 - 2West Ham
Burnley1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Burnley hosted West Ham in the Premier League, finishing 0-2. Goals: C. Summerville (13'), T. Castellanos (26'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 3.36 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** West Ham leading 0-2 at 55'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley +1. Average expected value was 8.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.7% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 8.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$205.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$205.00 (ROI: +102.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Burnley's favor. Burnley had 18 shots (5 on target) versus West Ham's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Burnley 1.3 — West Ham 0.98. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.8% / 27.6% / 44.4% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.75 Goals was the Value Signal.
The Premier League clash between Burnley and West Ham concluded 0-2, with West Ham securing a decisive away victory. The 1x2 market correctly priced West Ham as the favorite, reflecting their eventual win. In the Handicap market, with a line of 0.25, West Ham covered effortlessly, indicating the market underestimated their potential winning margin. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.75 goals (51.28% probability), the match ended with only 2 goals, resulting in an 'Under' outcome. This demonstrates a clear mispricing by bookmakers on the goal expectancy, providing significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +102.5% ROI on 1 trades.
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