Burnley0 - 1Manchester City
BurnleyWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 53', 70' — and still finish +$5330?
Match Overview
Burnley hosted Manchester City in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: E. Haaland (5'), E. Haaland (6'). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$5330.40 (ROI: +128.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 2.25 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 3.5 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.87; the home moneyline drifted out from 15.44 to 17.79.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Manchester City leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 26.7%, with a combined stake of $1066. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 25.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1332.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Manchester City leading 0-1 at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Burnley +1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 37.5%, with a combined stake of $2584. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 48.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$3634.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Manchester City leading 0-1 at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +1.5: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 38.5% (48.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +1.5: AI saw 86.7% vs market's 38.5% (48.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 43.5% (25.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 68.7% vs market's 45.5% (23.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 47.6% (22.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2505.30 (ROI: +137.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2461.60 (ROI: +134.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$363.50 (ROI: +72.7%)
Match Statistics
Burnley had 9 shots (1 on target) versus Manchester City's 1 (0 on target). Expected goals: Burnley 0.57 — Manchester City 0.08.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +128.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2505.30.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 5.6% / 10.8% / 87.0% |
| Asian handicap | +2.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the total goals in the Over/Under 3.5 line.
In the Premier League clash between Burnley and Manchester City (0-1), the market displayed clear inefficiencies, particularly in the Totals. While Manchester City's victory was correctly priced as the heavy favorite in the 1x2 market (86.96% implied win probability), the tight 0-1 scoreline exposed significant mispricing elsewhere. The Asian Handicap saw Man City favored at -2.25 (52.36% implied cover probability), yet they failed to cover, making Burnley +2.25 the value play. The most glaring error, however, was in the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 3.5, the market leaned slightly towards the Over (53.48% implied probability). The actual total of 1 goal proved this to be a substantial misjudgment, offering considerable Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under 3.5.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +128.4% ROI on 7 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2505.30.
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