Burnley0 - 2Brighton
BurnleyWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 33', 44', 50', 62', 68' — and still finish +$742?
Match Overview
Burnley hosted Brighton in the Premier League, finishing 0-2. Goals: M. Wieffer (43'), M. Wieffer (89'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 6 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$741.78 (ROI: +11.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.85; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.15 to 5.08.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Burnley +0.5 and Brighton 0. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $2109. The sharpest edge was on Brighton 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 25.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting $-982.35. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.3% probability versus the market's implied 25.0% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 4. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 0-1 at 44'. M. Wieffer scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brighton and Burnley +1.5. Average expected value was 26.6%, with a combined stake of $2081. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 37.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1497.13. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 0-1 at 50'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$727.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 0-1 at 62'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley +1. Average expected value was 40.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 38.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 0-1 at 68'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley +1. Average expected value was 46.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Burnley +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 43.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 68'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 36.4% (43.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +1: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 36.4% (38.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Burnley +1.5: AI saw 89.9% vs market's 51.9% (37.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Brighton 0: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 54.1% (25.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Moneyline Brighton: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 63.7% (12.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1064.01 (ROI: +25.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-322.23 (ROI: -12.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Burnley's deficit. Burnley had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Brighton's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Burnley 0.9 — Brighton 1.91. Corners: 8-2.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +11.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1064.01.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 19.7% / 23.6% / 59.9% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.75 Goals was the significant market inefficiency.
In the Premier League clash between Burnley and Brighton, Brighton secured a decisive 0-2 victory. The 1X2 market correctly identified Brighton as the market favorite with a closing probability of 59.88%, aligning with the actual outcome. Brighton also comfortably covered the Asian Handicap of -0.75, validating the 54.05% implied probability for them to cover. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.75 Goals at 54.05%, the match ended with only 2 goals, resulting in the Under 2.75 hitting. This represents a clear value signal for bettors who faded the market's overestimation of goal-scoring potential.
A positive result with +11.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$741.78. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1064.01.
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