Burnley2 - 2Aston Villa
BurnleyWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish +$1768?
Match Overview
Burnley hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Goals: J. Anthony (8'), J. Anthony (9'), R. Barkley (42'), O. Watkins (56'), Z. Flemming (59'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$1768.10 (ROI: +71.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 1 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.87; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.02 to 5.64.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Burnley leading 1-0 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa 0. Average expected value was 35.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$170.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Burnley leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa 0. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $2283. The sharpest edge was on Aston Villa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.4% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 28.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1598.10.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa 0: AI saw 87.3% vs market's 54.1% (33.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa 0: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 58.8% (28.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Aston Villa 0: AI saw 87.0% vs market's 58.8% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$804.30 (ROI: +70.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$793.80 (ROI: +70.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33–67 in Burnley's deficit. Burnley had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Aston Villa's 17 (6 on target). Expected goals: Burnley 1.62 — Aston Villa 1.34. Corners: 2-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +71.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$804.30.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 17.7% / 23.6% / 62.5% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market heavily underestimated the probability of a draw.
The match between Burnley and Aston Villa concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. The 1x2 market presented a clear market inefficiency, as bookmakers heavily favored Aston Villa with a 62.5% win probability, while the actual outcome was a draw. The market significantly undervalued the draw, which would have offered considerable Closing Line Value (CLV). In the Handicap market, with a line of Aston Villa -1, Burnley +1 successfully covered, aligning with the market's slight lean towards Burnley covering (53.48%). For the Totals market, the closing line of 2.5 goals saw a market lean towards the Over (54.35%), which proved correct as the match ended with 4 goals, confirming the market's efficiency on the goal count.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +71.2% ROI on 3 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$804.30.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.