Brighton2 - 1Nottingham Forest
BrightonWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-100 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Brighton hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, finishing 2-1. Goals: D. Gomez (6'), M. Gibbs-White (13'), D. Welbeck (15'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 1.91; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.13 to 2.27.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 42' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Brighton leading 2-1 at 42'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brighton -0.25. Average expected value was 3.2%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Brighton's favor. Brighton had 14 shots (7 on target) versus Nottingham Forest's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Brighton 1.31 — Nottingham Forest 0.68. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.0% / 29.4% / 29.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.5 market accurately forecasted the high-scoring nature of the match, delivering a strong value signal.
Brighton secured a 2-1 victory over Nottingham Forest. The 1x2 market correctly identified Brighton as the market favorite (44.05% implied probability), with the home win materializing. In the Asian Handicap market (-0.25), Brighton was also favored to cover (51.28%), and their 2-1 win resulted in a half-win on this line, validating the market sentiment. Crucially, the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5) market demonstrated notable efficiency; with an implied probability of 52.36% for the Over, the match ending with 3 goals (2-1) delivered a clear Over 2.5 hit. This consistency across all primary markets suggests a relatively efficient pricing from bookmakers, with the Over 2.5 being the most prominent value signal confirmed by the outcome.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.