Brighton1 - 1Everton
BrightonWhat went wrong? 6 trades, $-810 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Brighton hosted Everton in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: P. Gross (73'), Beto (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-810.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.91; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.85 to 2.01.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Under -0.5. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $810. The sharpest edge was on Under -0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 61.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-810.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 6 trades, 0W/6L, $-810.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Brighton's favor. Brighton had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Everton's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Brighton 1.29 — Everton 0.6. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.6% / 27.3% / 23.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw, favoring Brighton too heavily on the 1x2 and Handicap lines.
The Premier League clash between Brighton and Everton, ending 1-1, showcased significant market inefficiencies. The 1x2 market heavily favored a Brighton victory (52.63% implied probability) while only giving the draw a 27.25% chance. This proved to be a mispricing, as the match concluded in a stalemate, delivering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for draw bettors. On the Asian Handicap, Brighton was set at -0.5 (52.36% to cover), but their failure to secure a win meant the market again misjudged their outright dominance. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market correctly identified value, with the 2.5 line leaning slightly towards the Under (52.63% implied probability), aligning perfectly with the actual 2 goals scored. The biggest error was the pronounced undervaluation of the draw outcome.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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