Brighton0 - 1Crystal Palace
BrightonWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-58 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Brighton hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: I. Sarr (61'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-57.74 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 2.06; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brighton -0.25. Average expected value was 2.4%, with a combined stake of $58. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-57.74.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-57.74 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64%–36% in Brighton's favor. Brighton had 7 shots (2 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Brighton 0.85 — Crystal Palace 1.16. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.8% / 28.0% / 26.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market heavily underestimated Crystal Palace's win probability in the 1x2 market.
In a surprising Premier League encounter, Crystal Palace secured a 0-1 away victory against Brighton. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this fixture, with Brighton closing as the market favorite at an implied 48.78% win probability, while Crystal Palace's actual win occurred despite an implied probability of only 26.04%. This presents a clear EV+ opportunity for the away side. On the Handicap market (-0.5), Brighton failed to cover, aligning with the outright away win. The Totals market at 2.5 goals also showed inefficiency; despite a slight market lean towards the Over (52.36% implied probability), the match finished with only one goal, resulting in a clear Under. OddsFlow AI highlights the significant Closing Line Value available on Crystal Palace and the Under.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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