Brentford

2 - 2

Wolves

Brentford hosted Wolves in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Goals: M. Kayode (22'), I. Thiago (37'), A. Armstrong (44'), T. Arokodare (78'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 5 waves, achieving 73% precision with a net result of +$5452.60 (ROI: +60.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 2; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 1.97.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Brentford leading 1-0 at 25'. M. Kayode scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Wolves -1.5 and Wolves -1. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $2008. The sharpest edge was on Wolves -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 33.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2664.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Brentford leading 1-0 at 31'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Brentford. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $1143. The sharpest edge was on Brentford (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.3% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 15.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1143.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 44' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Brentford leading 2-1 at 44'. A. Armstrong scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Brentford and Wolves -0.5 and Wolves -1.5. Average expected value was 18.9%, with a combined stake of $3370. The sharpest edge was on Brentford (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 89.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 31.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 4 of 5 trades won, netting +$1182.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 53' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Brentford leading 2-1 at 53'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$750.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 80' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after T. Arokodare's equalizer at 78'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Wolves 0. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Wolves 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 40.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1999.50.

- **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Wolves 0: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 40.0% (40.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap Wolves 0: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 40.0% (40.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 60.0% vs market's 23.1% (36.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Wolves -1: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 36.4% (33.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Wolves -1: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 36.4% (32.6pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$3267.50 (ROI: +80.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$1519.50 (ROI: +36.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$665.60 (ROI: +80.0%)

Possession was 49%–51% in Brentford's deficit. Brentford had 10 shots (3 on target) versus Wolves's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Brentford 2.56 — Wolves 1.31. Corners: 1-4.