Brentford

2 - 2

Crystal Palace

Brentford hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Goals: I. Sarr (6' pen), D. Ouattara (40'), D. Ouattara (41'), A. Wharton (52'), D. Ouattara (88'). OddsFlow deployed 35 trades across 8 waves, achieving 46% precision with a net result of +$466.91 (ROI: +15.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 1.91; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.83 to 1.89.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brentford -0.75. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on Brentford -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.91. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brentford 0. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Brentford 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 18.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$105.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 31'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Brentford +0.5. Average expected value was 35.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Brentford +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.3% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 32.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$75.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Under 3 and Brentford +0.5. Average expected value was 34.6%, with a combined stake of $986. The sharpest edge was on Brentford +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 35.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-78.82. ### Wave 5 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Crystal Palace leading 0-1 at 38'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 30.2%, with a combined stake of $250. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 21.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after D. Ouattara's equalizer at 41'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Crystal Palace 0. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 16.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after D. Ouattara's equalizer at 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $330. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.0% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$637.60. ### Wave 8 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Wharton's equalizer at 52'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 4.5 and Brentford and Crystal Palace. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $955. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 30.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** 5 of 10 trades won, netting +$3.14.

- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Brentford +0.5: AI saw 89.2% vs market's 53.3% (35.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Brentford +0.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 53.3% (35.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Brentford +0.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 54.1% (34.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Brentford +0.5: AI saw 89.3% vs market's 57.1% (32.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 57.9% (30.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$180.00 (ROI: +90.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 4W/4L/1V, +$144.98 (ROI: +16.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/5L/1V, +$90.08 (ROI: +9.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 11 trades, 5W/5L/1V, +$76.86 (ROI: +7.8%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 58–42 in Brentford's favor. Brentford had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Brentford 1.87 — Crystal Palace 1.62. Corners: 8-4.