Bournemouth

2 - 2

Manchester United

Bournemouth hosted Manchester United in the Premier League, finishing 2-2. Goals: B. Fernandes (60' pen), B. Fernandes (61' pen), R. Christie (67'), J. Hill (71' OG), H. Maguire (71'), E. J. Kroupi (81' pen). Manchester United received a red card (H. Maguire, 78'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 5 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$2587.50 (ROI: +31.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.01 to 3.3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester United and Manchester United +0.5. Average expected value was 9.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Manchester United and Draw. Average expected value was 10.3%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.8% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$2075.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.2% probability versus the market's implied 27.8% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1300.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth +0.5 and Manchester United 0. Average expected value was 17.3%, with a combined stake of $2646. The sharpest edge was on Manchester United 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.4% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 28.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$700.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Manchester United leading 0-1 at 62'. B. Fernandes scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth +1. Average expected value was 27.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1012.50.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United 0: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 58.0% (28.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Manchester United 0: AI saw 86.0% vs market's 58.8% (27.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth +1: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 50.0% (26.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Bournemouth +1: AI saw 74.9% vs market's 49.4% (25.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 38.8% vs market's 26.7% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1150.00 (ROI: +34.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1062.50 (ROI: +32.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$375.00 (ROI: +25.0%)

Possession was 54%–46% in Bournemouth's favor. Bournemouth had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Manchester United's 14 (5 on target). Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.56 — Manchester United 1.77. Corners: 5-8.