Bournemouth1 - 1Manchester City
BournemouthWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 10', 35', 40', 63' — and still finish +$1255?
Match Overview
Bournemouth hosted Manchester City in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: E. J. Kroupi (39'), E. Haaland (90'). OddsFlow deployed 27 trades across 5 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$1254.82 (ROI: +59.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.29 to 4.78.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Bournemouth. Average expected value was 42.1%, with a combined stake of $26. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 31.1% probability versus the market's implied 20.9% — a 10.2 percentage point gap at odds of 4.78. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-26.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth +0.5. Average expected value was 17.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.1% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 14.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$115.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Bournemouth +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $823. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 75.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.3% — a 20.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.84. **Result:** All 10 trades won, netting +$902.32. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Bournemouth leading 1-0 at 40'. E. J. Kroupi scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Bournemouth and Manchester City 0 and Under 3.5 and Under 3. Average expected value was 30.9%, with a combined stake of $958. The sharpest edge was on Manchester City 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 35.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 6 of 12 trades won, netting +$83.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Bournemouth leading 1-0 at 63'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Manchester City -0.5. Average expected value was 33.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Manchester City -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.7% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 31.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$180.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City 0: AI saw 79.8% vs market's 44.4% (35.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City 0: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 47.6% (32.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City 0: AI saw 79.8% vs market's 47.6% (32.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City -0.5: AI saw 83.7% vs market's 52.6% (31.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Manchester City -0.5: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 52.6% (30.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 9W/3L/1V, +$742.70 (ROI: +70.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 5W/3L/2V, +$313.12 (ROI: +37.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$225.00 (ROI: +112.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-26.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Bournemouth's deficit. Bournemouth had 10 shots (2 on target) versus Manchester City's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.99 — Manchester City 1.31. Corners: 7-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$742.70.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 20.9% / 22.3% / 60.2% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 47.9% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of the draw in the 1x2 market.
The Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Manchester City ended in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market displayed a significant inefficiency, with Manchester City heavily favored at a 60.24% win probability, while the draw was priced at a mere 22.32%. OddsFlow AI identified this as a clear value signal. In the Asian Handicap market, the line was set at 1. Manchester City (-1 HDP) had a 47.85% implied probability to cover, but Bournemouth (+1 HDP) covered with a 54.64% implied probability, indicating the market overestimated City's winning margin. The Totals market (O/U 3.25) correctly leaned towards the 'Under' with 51.81% probability, as the match finished with 2 goals, well below the closing line. The biggest error was the considerable underestimation of the draw outcome.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.6% ROI on 27 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$742.70.
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