Bournemouth3 - 0Crystal Palace
BournemouthWhat went wrong? 6 trades, $-1186 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Bournemouth hosted Crystal Palace in the Premier League, finishing 3-0. Goals: J. Lerma (10' OG), E. J. Kroupi (31' pen), E. J. Kroupi (32' pen), Rayan (77'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-1185.50 (ROI: -32.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.83; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Bournemouth leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Crystal Palace -1.5 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $3608. The sharpest edge was on Crystal Palace -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.2% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 29.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-1185.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace -1.5: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 46.5% (29.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace -1.5: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 46.5% (29.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Crystal Palace -1.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 46.5% (29.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-391.50 (ROI: -32.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-396.50 (ROI: -32.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-397.50 (ROI: -33.0%)
Match Statistics
Bournemouth had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Crystal Palace's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -32.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-391.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 60.6% / 23.8% / 18.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Bournemouth's ability to comfortably cover the -0.75 Asian Handicap.
Bournemouth secured a dominant 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. The 1x2 market accurately predicted a Bournemouth win, with our model pricing them at 60.61% implied probability. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap. Despite Bournemouth's commanding 3-0 scoreline, which easily covered the -0.75 line, the market only assigned a 54.64% probability for them to cover. This represents a clear Value Signal on Bournemouth -0.75, indicating the market undervalued the extent of their superiority. The Totals market (O/U 2.75) was reasonably efficient, with 3 goals resulting in a half-win for Over bettors, closely aligned with the 52.91% Over probability.
A tough session at -32.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-391.50.
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